Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

The centerpiece of this article is Thucydides theory of rising and rivaling powers. This theory explores the inevitability of a war between an established superpower and a rising, competing power. The article covers the rapid ascent of the Chinese economy and power over the last decade. In addition the article provides 16 examples of Thucydidean cases, 12 of which ended in war. It goes on to question which of the two categories the China-US rivalry will fall in. What the article failed to comment on was that 3 of the cases that were resolved peacefully were in the last 20 years. These last 20 years have been filled with innovations, the digital age in particular, that have brought the world together and interwoven international trade. Since the breakdown of the Soviet Union and the nexus of the aforementioned developments international intelligence and diplomacy have grown vastly more comprehensive and communicative. An overt war, with the magnitude of World War II, is unfeasible because of the very developments that have allowed China’s rapid growth. Without open and solid trade channels with Europe and the United States China’s economy would crumble and would be even less capable to deal with the serious challenges facing the country's economy, such as its inflated real estate market and struggling stock exchange. However, a covert war is certainly possible and is already in its first stages. Chinese cyber attacks on Western governments and companies, aggressions over disputed Islands, and currency manipulations are serious warning signals that relations might be taking a turn for the worse. Instead of escalating aggressions in response to these covert attacks we must see them as an opportunity to openly address the unfolding Thucydidean crisis. The struggle of China to become a recognized polar power in the former unipolar world can only be addressed through a balanced mix of demonstrations of Western power and willingness to defend their interests, and the West’s willingness to seek peaceful and mutually-prosperous solutions.